More disposable income, tight supply keep B.C. housing market strong despite COVID-19: report
the Editors • October 8, 2020
Not even a global pandemic can keep the province's real estate industry down.
The British Columbia Real Estate Association’s latest report, The Unusual World of Pandemic Economics, seems to contradict its title. Or maybe that’s the point.
In any case, the hammering that many parts of the economy have seen thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic hasn’t been felt by the province’s real estate industry, at least according to the BCREA.
“Looking at recent data in the housing market, it would be difficult to tell there was a recession at all,” said BCREA chief economist Brendon Ogmundson in a release. “In a typical recession, we would see falling demand and rising supply, but this recession is anything but typical.”
The report points to uneven job losses across sectors, an increase in many households’ rate of savings, swift government aid, a tighter-than-ever housing supply and low interest rates as the drivers behind B.C.’s recent housing market highs.
Notably, high-income households have been much less affected by the crisis than middle- or lower income families. Household savings and disposable income have also increased, with the latter jumping 11 percent from the first quarter of 2020 to the second, according to the report.
With people not as keen to show their homes or move during the pandemic, supply has shrunk, too, creating some pent-up demand.
The BCREA’s current prediction for 2020 MLS sales is in the 80,000 range, which would beat 2019’s tally of 77,331. The group is also predicting a massive bump for next year.
“We expect home sales will sustain this momentum into 2021, aided by record-low mortgage rates and a recovering economy,” noted Ogmundson.
Developers in British Columbia are offering steep discounts as new inventory keeps stacking up, fuelling competition for buyers who can afford to shop around. In Kelowna, Mission Group had a one-day flash sale on Saturday on all vacant inventory at its Alma on Abbott development, a boutique lakefront community located in Pandosy Village that was completed in October. Mission Group president Luke Turri said half of Alma’s 87 units – ranging from studios to three-bedrooms – need to be sold. With the discount, one- and two-bedroom units will be roughly $425,000 to $505,000. “We realize that we have to meet the market where it’s at,” said Turri, who’s been in the field for 20 years. He said today’s buyers are highly informed and cautious. “Buyers are seeing price corrections, incentive programs, construction delays, interest rates swinging, and they need certainty, they need credibility, and so for us the focus is, how do we create that momentum?” Turri said Alma had a successful pre-sale launch, and Mission Group had always anticipated having available inventory after completion due to its target audience of end users, rather than investors. In its latest monthly report, the Association of Interior Realtors said the market maintained a “gradual and steady pace” in October. Still, inventory levels are elevated compared to historical norms. Interior Realtors reported 8,938 active listings at the end of last month, comparable to fall 2024 levels, but well above the 10-year average. 👉 Read the Article Here
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The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. Major economies around the world continue to show resilience to US trade protectionism, but uncertainty is still high. In the United States, economic growth is being supported by strong consumption and a surge in AI investment. The US government shutdown caused volatility in quarterly growth and delayed the release of some key economic data. Tariffs are causing some upward pressure on US inflation. In the euro area, economic growth has been stronger than expected, with the services sector showing particular resilience. In China, soft domestic demand, including more weakness in the housing market, is weighing on growth. Global financial conditions, oil prices, and the Canadian dollar are all roughly unchanged since the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). 👉 Read the Article Here 
